After Fed September rate hike probability rises to 88%, crypto stocks rebound along with US stocks: Ethereum up 3.1%, Bitcoin up 0.2%
Core CPI beat expectations in September 2026, pushing Fed September rate-hike probability to 88%; ETH rose 3.1%, BTC rose 0.2%, and crypto stocks rebounded.
Article Citation Summary
Core CPI beat expectations in September 2026, pushing Fed September rate-hike probability to 88%; ETH rose 3.1%, BTC rose 0.2%, and crypto stocks rebounded.
Core summary: After US CPI data released on September 11-13, 2026, market probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting rose from 75% to 88%; but US stocks and crypto assets rebounded during the same period, with Ethereum up 3.1% and Bitcoin up 0.2%. This article is based on public reports from NASDAQ and Investors.com, providing data methodology, OKX market watch points, and risk disclosure. It does not constitute investment advice.
This article was compiled by the OKX Radar editorial team, with data as of September 13, 2026. OKX Radar is an independent third-party media outlet and does not provide trading services; readers should refer to the latest official announcements and actual market pages.
Inflation and rate hike expectations: Core CPI beats expectations, rate hike probability rises to 88%
How did August CPI beat expectations?
According to a NASDAQ report on September 13, 2026, US CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August 2026, in line with market expectations; core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.2%; year-over-year CPI rose 3.4%, unchanged; core CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, hitting a 5.5-year low. Meanwhile, an Investors.com report on September 11, 2026 also confirmed that US stocks broke a four-day losing streak on Friday, despite the hotter-than-expected inflation report.
| CPI Indicator | Reported Value | Market Expectation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI MoM | 0.4% | 0.4% | In line with expectations |
| Core CPI MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | Higher than expected |
| CPI YoY | 3.4% | - | Unchanged |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.4% | - | Hits 5.5-year low |
Why did the stock market not continue falling?
According to a NASDAQ report on September 13, 2026, after the CPI report, the market probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting rose from 75% on Thursday to 88%.
| Time Point | Probability of 25bp Rate Hike |
|---|---|
| Before CPI report (Thursday) | 75% |
| After CPI report | 88% |
But the S&P 500 rose 0.86%, the Dow rose 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.91%.
| Index | Gain |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.86% |
| Dow | +0.98% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +0.91% |
Our independent assessment: The rebound may include factors such as "bad news is exhausted," falling oil prices, or position adjustments, but it cannot be inferred that the rate hike path is fully priced in; a single-day rebound does not constitute a trend reversal signal.
Crypto assets and related stock performance: ETH +3.1%, BTC +0.2%
Why did ETH and BTC have different gains?
According to a NASDAQ report on September 13, 2026, Ethereum rose 3.1% and Bitcoin rose 0.2%. The difference in gains may come from differences in liquidity, narrative sensitivity, and contract positioning. This article did not obtain minute-by-minute transaction snapshots of ETH/BTC on OKX, so it does not make causal assertions; it only reminds readers that different assets have different elasticities under the same macro event.
How did crypto mining and platform stocks perform?
Also according to the NASDAQ report on September 13, 2026, Mara Holdings rose more than 4%, Riot Platforms rose more than 2%, and Strategy and Coinbase rose more than 1%.
| Asset/Stock | Gain |
|---|---|
| Ethereum (ETH) | +3.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | +0.2% |
| Mara Holdings | More than 4% |
| Riot Platforms | More than 2% |
| Strategy | More than 1% |
| Coinbase | More than 1% |
This indicates that crypto-related stocks are linked to risk asset sentiment, but stock performance is not equivalent to OKX platform coin prices or trading data.
Viewing quotes and setting observation alerts on OKX: Operational points
How to view ETH/BTC prices and 24h changes?
Based on the OKX web or App public interface, the following are general steps (specific button names subject to the actual interface):
- Open OKX and enter the market or markets page.
- Enter ETH or BTC in the search box and select the corresponding spot trading pair (e.g., ETH/USDT, BTC/USDT).
- View the real-time price and 24h change displayed on the page.
- If you need to monitor volatility, click "Add to Favorites" or a similar collection button.
How to set price alerts and watchlist?
Continue on the market detail page:
- Look for the "Price Alert" or "Alert" feature entry (if the product currently provides it).
- Set alert conditions, such as price above or below a certain value, and choose notification method.
- After confirmation, OKX will send a notification when the condition is triggered; actual triggering and transaction price may have delays.
Note: OKX Radar does not provide trading platform customer service or download links. The above steps are for informational assistance only and do not constitute operational advice.
Data methodology, timing, and risk disclosure
How to verify CPI and rate hike probability data?
All figures come from public reports, with NASDAQ source dated September 13, 2026, and Investors.com source dated September 11, 2026. The rate hike probability implied by interest rate futures changes with the market. The 88% in this article is a market pricing snapshot after the CPI report and does not represent the actual rate hike outcome. OKX Radar does not provide real-time probability data. If you need to verify on your own, refer to public tools such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report, Federal Reserve official announcements, or CME FedWatch; this article does not directly cite these sources, so no external links are provided.
What are the key points for the Fed's September 15-16 meeting?
Key points include: the Fed's decision statement, dot plot, economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell's press conference wording. The rate hike probability may fluctuate, and readers should refer to the official results. Data in this article is as of September 13, 2026; subsequent changes are not covered.
What common macro and crypto data are not covered in this article?
This article does not cover nonfarm payrolls, PPI, ETF flows, August returns, or other data. If you need to verify such information, visit the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, ETF issuer websites, or professional data terminals; OKX Radar does not provide such real-time data services and does not make inferences on uncovered data.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does the 88% Fed September rate hike probability mean a rate hike will definitely occur?
Not necessarily. 88% is the probability pricing by the interest rate futures market for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting after the CPI report on September 13, 2026. It is a market expectation, not a certain event. The actual result is subject to the Fed's official decision, and the probability may change with new data.
ETH rose 3.1% while BTC rose only 0.2%. Why this divergence?
According to a NASDAQ report on September 13, 2026, ETH's gain was significantly higher than BTC's. The divergence may come from differences in market liquidity, contract positioning, or risk sentiment. However, this article did not obtain OKX's minute-by-minute transaction data, so it cannot provide a definitive causal explanation. Investors should observe according to their own risk tolerance.
How to view real-time quotes for Ethereum and Bitcoin on OKX?
Open the OKX web or App, enter the market page, search for ETH or BTC, and select the spot trading pair to view real-time price and 24h change; specific buttons and paths are subject to the OKX actual interface. OKX Radar does not provide trading services, only methodological reference.
When will the results of the Fed's September 15-16 meeting be announced?
The Fed meeting results are usually announced in the early morning of the next day Beijing time, but the specific time is subject to the Fed's official schedule. Data in this article is as of September 13, 2026, and does not include the meeting results. Readers should refer to the official release.
Where do the CPI and probability data in this article come from, and how can I verify them?
CPI, rate hike probability, and crypto stock data come from the NASDAQ report on September 13, 2026; the information about stocks breaking a four-day losing streak comes from the Investors.com report on September 11, 2026. To verify, you can access the external reference links at the end of the article (if any) or the official tools mentioned above; for interest rate probabilities, you can also refer to public tools such as CME FedWatch (but this article did not directly cite their data).
Does this article cover nonfarm payrolls, PPI, ETF flows, and August returns?
No. This article only covers US CPI, rate hike probability, and the performance of ETH/BTC and crypto-related stocks. For topics such as nonfarm payrolls, PPI, ETF flows, and August returns, this article did not obtain authoritative data and does not provide any inferences. Readers can verify through the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve website, ETF issuer websites, or professional data terminals.
Risk warning: Crypto/digital asset prices are highly volatile, and information and rules may change at any time. This article does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Before making decisions, refer to the latest official announcements and actual product pages.
References and verification links
These are the article-level sources stored with this page. Interpret dynamic facts and rules in light of their dates, regions, and subsequent updates.
FAQ
Does the 88% Fed September rate hike probability mean a rate hike will definitely occur? ▼
Not necessarily. 88% is the probability pricing by the interest rate futures market for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting after the CPI report on September 13, 2026. It is a market expectation, not a certain event. The actual result is subject to the Fed's official decision, and the probability may change with new data.
ETH rose 3.1% while BTC rose only 0.2%. Why this divergence? ▼
According to a NASDAQ report on September 13, 2026, ETH's gain was significantly higher than BTC's. The divergence may come from differences in market liquidity, contract