Why Bitcoin Rose: US Treasury Buybacks and Trump's Crypto Legislation Call Push Price Above $77,000 in 2026

On August 21, 2026, Bitcoin's price briefly rose to $77,307.95, up 5.4% from the previous trading day. This rally may be related to four factors: the US Treasury announcing more long-term debt buybacks, President Trump calling for crypto legislation, Standard Chartered analysts offering a more positive year-end price outlook, and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows beginning to recover. These factors are based on public reports and should be treated with a distinction between correlation and causation.

Why Bitcoin Rose Today: A Quick Overview of Direct Causes

Core Triggers of This Rally

According to a Yahoo Finance report on August 21, 2026, Bitcoin opened at $73,013 on that day, up 5.4% from the previous trading day, and rose to $77,307.95 by 9:08 a.m. ET. The report listed the US Treasury's announcement of more long-term debt buybacks and President Trump's call for crypto legislation as the main factors driving this cryptocurrency rally. In addition, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that the recent rise was primarily driven by short liquidations, and that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows had begun to recover. Based on available materials, the driving factors include at least four aspects: Treasury buyback expectations, policy signals, institutional views, and ETF fund flows.

However, it should be noted that these factors appeared on the same day, and public reports cannot prove a single causal relationship. For example, short liquidations could be both a trigger and a result of the price increase; whether the recovery in ETF inflows is a trend or a short-term fluctuation still requires more data verification.

How to Quickly Verify Price Data

If readers wish to independently verify prices, they should first confirm which exchange or data provider the market data comes from, because prices may vary across platforms. Then check the timestamp, distinguishing between Beijing time, ET, or UTC. The price data used in this article comes from the Yahoo Finance report on August 21, 2026, with a time frame of 9:08 a.m. ET. When verifying, it is recommended to cross-check multiple public market sources and note whether the day's most important news events align in time with price movements.

How the US Treasury's Long-Term Debt Buybacks Affect Bitcoin's Price

Mechanism and Liquidity Effects of Treasury Buybacks

The US Treasury's buyback of long-term debt essentially involves the government repurchasing outstanding long-term Treasury securities ahead of schedule. The market typically interprets this operation as reducing the supply of long-term Treasuries, lowering long-end yields, and potentially releasing dollar liquidity at the margin. A Yahoo Finance report on August 21, 2026, stated that the US Treasury announced more long-term debt buybacks and listed it as one of the main factors driving the cryptocurrency rally. However, the report did not disclose the specific size, maturity, or implementation pace of this buyback. Therefore, this article can only explain the market expectation change brought by the news and cannot quantify its actual impact on liquidity.

Relationship Between Fiscal Policy and Risk Assets

From the general transmission logic, if long-term Treasury yields decline due to buybacks, capital may rotate into risk assets, including stocks and crypto assets. But this path is not inevitable: the crypto market is simultaneously influenced by multiple variables such as risk appetite, the dollar index, and regulatory events. The Treasury buyback news and Bitcoin's rise appeared simultaneously in time, but public information is insufficient to prove that the buyback was the sole or most important cause. Readers should exercise restraint in attribution and avoid the simplistic deduction that "policy news = inevitable price increase."

Policy Signals and Market Expectations from Trump's Crypto Legislation Call

Specifics of Trump's Legislation Call

According to the Yahoo Finance report on August 21, 2026, President Trump called for passing crypto legislation, and the news was listed as one of the main factors driving this cryptocurrency rally. However, as of the time of writing, available materials do not provide the full text of the legislation call, the names of involved bills, committee stage, or expected voting time. This means the market is largely reacting emotionally to policy signals rather than pricing in already-implemented rules.

How Policy Expectations Affect Crypto Market Sentiment

Improved policy expectations generally boost confidence among institutions and retail investors regarding the compliance prospects of crypto assets, which may attract incremental funds. However, before legislation is passed, such expectations are highly uncertain. If the subsequent legislative process stalls or the terms fall short of expectations, market sentiment could reverse quickly. Therefore, this article only treats "Trump's call for crypto legislation" as a policy signal that coincided with the rally, without claiming that the call directly caused the price increase.

Key Points and Assumptions of Standard Chartered's 2026 Bitcoin Forecast

Standard Chartered's Price Target and Time Frame

Cointelegraph reported on August 21, 2026, that Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin could move toward its all-time high of $126,000 by year-end and believed his original year-end forecast of $100,000 may be too low. This statement provides a directional range rather than a precise target price. The all-time high was $126,198.07, reached on October 6, 2025.

Core Assumptions and Risks Behind the Forecast

Kendrick noted that the recent Bitcoin rise was primarily driven by short liquidations and that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows had begun to recover. This means his bullish lean is partly based on the assumption of continued ETF inflows and ongoing short covering. If ETF inflows reverse, the regulatory environment deteriorates, or macro liquidity tightens, the price may fall short of expectations. Therefore, Standard Chartered's judgment is an institutional view, not a promise or guarantee of the year-end 2026 price. Readers should also pay attention to other institutions' forecasts during the same period to avoid relying solely on a single source.

How to Verify and Interpret Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows

Data Sources for ETF Fund Flows

Net inflow data for spot Bitcoin ETFs is typically disclosed daily by fund issuers and aggregated by third-party data platforms. The Cointelegraph report on August 21, 2026, cited in this article only mentions that "spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have begun to recover" without giving specific amounts or consecutive days. Readers seeking precise data should consult issuer announcements or mainstream data platforms, and be aware of data update lags, differences in calculation methods, and platform estimation errors.

Correlation Analysis Between Inflows and Price

A recovery in inflows may indicate new buying entering the market, but historically, ETF fund flows and Bitcoin price have not always moved in sync. Sometimes inflows lag price increases, and sometimes after large inflows, prices actually pull back in the short term. Kendrick listed ETF inflow recovery alongside short liquidations as the background for the recent rise, but did not provide correlation statistics. Therefore, when interpreting, fund flows should be treated as one of the concurrent indicators, not a sufficient condition for predicting price increases.

How to Independently Verify the Reasons for the Rise and Avoid Common Pitfalls

Verification Steps: Data, Policy, Fund Flows

If readers wish to independently assess this rally, they can follow these steps: first, confirm that the Bitcoin price comes from a reliable market source and check the timestamp and exchange; second, check the US Treasury's official website or mainstream financial media to confirm the specific content of the buyback announcement; third, consult the White House, Congress, or authoritative media to verify the original text and progress of Trump's legislation call; fourth, obtain fund flow data from ETF issuer disclosure pages or third-party platforms and cross-verify. If during verification you find that specific sizes, dates, or documents cannot be obtained, you should recognize the evidentiary boundaries of current conclusions. If you need to place limit orders during price volatility, you can refer to the site tutorial: How to Place a Spot Limit Order on OKX: Maker Orders, Cancellation, and Fill Verification Tutorial.

Common Pitfalls and Risk Warnings

Common pitfalls include: treating multiple events that occurred on the same day as independent causes; ignoring the endogeneity of short liquidations; treating institutional views as objective facts; and using single-day fund flows to infer long-term trends. It should be specifically noted that OKX Radar is an independent third-party media outlet with no affiliation with any trading platform or data provider. This article is based solely on public information for attribution analysis and does not provide investment or trading services. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please assess risks on your own.